Crude Awakening: Preparing Ottawa-Gatineau for Peak Oil

Ottawa Peak Oil Forum

Saturday, January 28th, 2006
Ottawa City Hall, Main Floor
8:30 AM to 4:00 PM

Peak Oil Quotations

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David L. Goodstein

From Out of Gas, by David L. Goodstein, 2004:

There is no existing technology capable of replacing the oil we will soon be without, nor is there any on the horizon that we can depend on to replace the remaining fossil fuels when they are exhausted. ...

... Civilization as we know it will come to an end sometime in this century unless we can find a way to live without fossil fuels.

David L. Goodstein is a U.S. physicist and educator. Since 1988, he has served as Vice-provost of the California Institute of Technology (Caltech), where he is also a professor of physics and applied physics.

David L. Goodstein

David L. Goodstein:

So, what does the future hold? Well, for one thing, there will be an oil crisis very soon. Whether that means it has already begun or won't happen until later in this decade or sometime in the next decade, I don't know. In my view, the numbers are not dependable enough for us to say. However, while the difference between those estimates may be very important to us, it’s of no importance at all on the time scale of human history. Either we, our children, or perhaps our grandchildren, are in for some very, very bad times.
From a talk given by David Goodstein at Caltech in April 2004, quoted in the New York Times review of his book "Out of gas". See http://arral.org/news/wow/saved_6507.html

David L. Goodstein is a U.S. physicist and educator. Since 1988, he has served as Vice-provost of the California Institute of Technology (Caltech), where he is also a professor of physics and applied physics.

 

Paul Krugman, The New York Times

Paul Krugman

So what should we be doing? Here's a hint: We can neither drill nor conquer our way out of the problem. Whatever we do, oil prices are going up. What we have to do is adapt.

The Oil Crunch, by Paul Krugman, The New York Times, May 7, 2004

 

 


Colin Campbell

Crude Awakening: Preparing Ottawa-Gatineau for Peak Oil

From Colin Campbell's ASPO Newsletter, September 2005; article no. 604:

The New York Times Magazine of 21st August carried a long article, entitled The Breaking Point by Peter Maass, which addresses the issue of Peak Oil, with particular reference to Saudi Arabia. It contrasts the official view as conveyed by al-Naimi, the present chief executive of [Saudi] Aramco, with the more realistic statements by al-Husseini, his predecessor who is freer to speak, being out of office. The following is a brief extract referring to the particularly telling remarks of the latter.
''You look at the globe and ask, 'Where are the big increments?' and there's hardly anything but Saudi Arabia,'' he said. ''The kingdom and Ghawar field are not the problem. That misses the whole point. The problem is that you go from 79 million barrels a day in 2002 to 82.5 in 2003 to 84.5 in 2004. You're leaping by two million to three million a year, and if you have to cover declines, that's another four to five million.'' In other words, if demand and depletion patterns continue, every year the world will need to open enough fields or wells to pump an additional six to eight million barrels a day -- at least two million new barrels a day to meet the rising demand and at least four million to compensate for the declining production of existing fields. ''That's like a whole new Saudi Arabia every couple of years,'' Husseini said. ''It can't be done indefinitely. It's not sustainable.''

See Maass's original story in the New York Times Magazine at
http://www.petermaass.com/core.cfm?p=1&mag=124&magtype=1

Dr. Colin Campbell is a geologist retired after many years experience as a petroleum explorer and senior manager in several major oil companies. See his C.V. at http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic3020.html

 

 

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Last updated: January 17th, 2006